Kalibrate Canada sees retail gasoline volumes returning to growth
Kalibrate Canada, a provider of data, software, and consultancy to Canadian fuel retailers, released a recent update on Canadian fuel sales volumes for the first quarter of this year. Its Strong start to 2025 for Canadian fuel volumes: a positive signal in a shifting global market, finds in its quarterly survey that there is a “positive trend for Canadian fuel retailers: demand for both gasoline and diesel was up year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025.”
Based on data put together from some 7,000 retail gasoline locations across Canada, Kalibrate Canada reports that in the first quarter of this year, retail gasoline volumes rose by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2024. Diesel volumes at retail gasoline stations also saw impressive gains, up 6.1% year-over-year, Kalibrate Canada wrote.
“This growth is particularly significant in the current context, as many fuel retailers worldwide are still seeing volumes fall short of 2019 benchmarks,” it continued. “Regionally, all parts of Canada experienced gasoline volume growth. Manitoba and Saskatchewan led the way with a 4.8% increase, while British Columbia posted a more modest 1.5% gain. Despite being the lowest, B.C.’s growth is still notable given the West Coast’s evolving fuel landscape.”
Diesel demand at retail gasoline stations also increased across most of the country, with Quebec standing out at 13.8% year-over-year growth, and Atlantic Canada following closely at 9.3%, while British Columbia saw a small decline in diesel volumes of 0.4%.
READ: Gas prices drop as consumer carbon price ends, but full impact yet to be felt
Kalibrate Canada says that while the first quarter results were “encouraging”, the company added that “when comparing current volumes to Q1 2019, some regions are nearing a full recovery. Atlantic Canada’s gasoline volumes are now just 1.1% below pre-pandemic levels, and Alberta is close behind at 1.8% below. Quebec, however, remains further from recovery, with gasoline volumes still 8.9% below Q1 2019.”
Convenience Store News Canada reached out Kalibrate Canada to ask more about these trends, for example, will the upward trend seen this quarter continue into the summer months?
“Beyond Q1, we now have M4 (month 4) available, showing a 1.9% year-over-year increase, so the trend for now is continuing,” Kalibrate Canada wrote back.
When asked if the removal of the carbon tax by the Liberal Government leading up to the recent federal election had any role in the upward trend, Kalibrate Canada said this quarter consumption increase would be unaffected by the removal of the carbon tax.
“As this was after March. Lower crude prices since March/April have been largely due to the trade war and concerns that this will cause contraction in the global economy and reduce crude oil demand. Also, expected increases in crude oil production from OPEC+ this spring have also contributed to lower crude oil prices. Lower crude oil prices, along with the removal of the carbon tax, have contributed to significantly lower retail pump prices in the last couple of months.”
