Canada’s ZEV push coming under fire from politicians, industry
If you have been watching the news lately, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre may be trying a line of attack and even a new slogan in hopes of unseating the federal Liberals next time an election is called. His target is Canada’s ZEV (zero emission vehicle) mandate, and there is talk that it may be called the ‘Carney Tax’.
For those who are confused as to what the ZEV mandate is, it is an initiative that the previous federal government took on as part of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, that will see a growing percentage of new light-duty vehicles sold in Canada to be zero-emission, either being fully electric or plug-in hybrid. It is meant to kick in next year and aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, which accounts for nearly 25% of Canada's total emissions. The mandate begins in 2026, with 20% of new light-duty vehicles required to be ZEVs, increasing to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
Poilievre and the Conservative hope targeting the mandate and maybe using this slogan will raise his and the party’s profile again amongst voters after he and the Conservative’s loss this past election.
Yes, ‘Carney Tax’ does not have the same tripping-off-the-tongue ring as Poilievre’s earlier ‘Axe the Tax’ that once galvanized voters to the Conservatives. Nor is the argument that Canadians will be forced to buy electric vehicles stirring similar voter outrage, as it rings rather hollow, especially the argument being made by some that there is an inherent Constitutional right to own an ICE vehicle. I cannot seem to find anywhere written in the Constitution.
There is a good chance the mandate may meet its demise in the same way as the carbon tax did. Prime Minister Mark Carney may simply announce it is being shelved and the hopes that some have of it becoming a millstone around the Prime Minister’s neck fades, leaving Conservatives scrambling once again to find another issue to create a slogan around.
Does that mean that the electric vehicle evolution is now dead? It is an argument I’ve heard for a while now: that electric vehicles were never popular and were made and sold because governments forced automakers to build them and forced people to buy them.
Reality, as they say, is more complicated.
READ: Canada continues to fall behind on building up EV charging network: experts
Yes, electric vehicle sales have slowed in the past months. So have sales for gasoline vehicles.
Much of the slowdown is being driven by economic uncertainty on both sides of the border, largely the result of President Trump’s efforts to overturn rules-based global trade through tariffs. Consumers are now pulling back on spending and holding onto their existing vehicles longer as vehicle prices continue to rise, along with the price on other goods.
The average vehicle age on U.S. roads, for example, was 12.6 years in 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility. In Canada, according to the Canadian Vehicle Survey put out by Statistics Canada, the average age of vehicle on the road here is 10-11 years.
While some point to a recent Statistics Canada study that found a significant drop in ZEV sales, with just just 37,229 zero-emission vehicles registered (8.7%) of all new vehicle registrations in Q1 2025, down from 81,216 ZEVs registered in the previous quarter, the percentage of new vehicles sold in Canada that are ZEV continued to increase.
In a Market Snapshot report released early in August of this year from Statistics Canada, it finds “prior to the reduction observed in the first quarter of 2025, zero emission vehicles (or ZEVs – including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs] and battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]) continued to increase their share of new vehicles sold in Canada, reaching 15% of total new motor vehicle registrations in 2024 (a proxy for new vehicle sales).”
Statistics Canada also finds “the mix of fuels used to power Canadians’ new motor vehicles is also changing, with a clear trend of growing popularity for gasoline hybrids and ZEVs – prior to the Q1 2025 reduction.”
While ZEVs were responsible for 60% of the net increase in total vehicle registrations in Canada in 2024 and accounted for one in seven new vehicles sold that year, Statistics Canada does expect this to fall by the end of this year; not an utter collapse in the market for the vehicles as some are predicting.
As I mentioned just earlier, some of the decline in sales of ZEV and other vehicles can be attributed to chaos being created by the ever-unpredictable nature of President Trump and his tariff policies.
Another reason lies in the fact that governments here in Canada have not put a priority on building out a robust public charging infrastructure. The lack of a reliable charging infrastructure, especially outside of major urban areas, is one reason people hesitate to purchase an electric vehicle.
The biggest reason, however, comes down to the short-sighted business priorities chosen by the automakers here in North America, such as the rush to embrace trade practices keeping foreign competitors out of the market. This has prevented not only cheaper and better-built electric vehicles reaching consumers in Canada and the United States, but it has also allowed automakers here to forgo developing innovative and cheaper electric vehicles of their own.
NPR last year noted that Chinese auto maker BYD and its entry-level Seagull electric vehicle is comparable to many if not better than most North American electric vehicles currently on the market now and would cost significantly less even if it was hit with tariffs and the added cost of making it meet North American safety standards. I’ve seen estimated pricing for the Seagull, if it were allowed to be sold here in Canada, at $20,000 less than what is on today’s dealer’s lots. I am certain that if such a vehicle were to be available, there would be a line around the block of people wanting to purchase one.
Scraping the ZEV mandate would only reward the poor business decisions of the automakers, while scoring cheap political points.
We can argue all we want about labour practices, differing economic policies, government support etc., between North America, China and Europe. The simple fact is that electric vehicles now are selling well around the world, there are more competitors building inexpensive electric vehicles, and we in North America are doing little to encourage greater competition here amongst the auto makers and now working toward undermining efforts to build the infrastructure needed to support them.
In the end, politicians can come up with any number of cute slogans, social media posts, and memes to score political points. It does nothing to address the deeper issues at play that are impacting the electric vehicle market—let alone the larger economy.
